CME Scoreboard

Prediction for CME (2013-10-22T22:00:00-CME-001)

(Arrival Prediction by NOAA/SWPC submitted to this system by M. Leila Mays)
(Submitted CME shock arrival time taken from simulation posted here: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wsa-enlil/)
(Submitted Kp estimate is from the Forecast Discussion and 3-Day Forecast below)
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Product: Forecast Discussion
Issued: 2013 Oct 24 0030 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was moderate. Region 1875 (N08W11, Ekc/beta-gamma-delta)
continued to be the most active region, producing the largest flares of
the period, including an impulsive M2 at 23/2053 UTC . This region
maintained a beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration with multiple spot
clusters exhibiting delta characteristics. Region 1877 (S12E09,
Dki/beta-gamma-delta) decreased in area, but developed a delta in its
intermediate spots. It was also responsible for a few low-level C-class
flares throughout the period. The faint, asymmetric full-halo CME,
associated with the M4/1B flare at 22/2120 UTC, was re-analyzed as more
data became available throughout the day. The majority of ejecta
appeared to have a trajectory south of the Sun-Earth plane, but a
glancing blow from a small component of the plasma cloud remains a
possibility on 27 Oct.
.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class (NOAA
Scale R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate)) flare activity for the next three days (24
- 26 Oct).
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit decreased
to moderate levels, reaching a peak flux value of 679 pfu at
23/1520 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous
orbit was slightly enhanced for the latter part of the period, due to
yesterday's M4/1b flare, though still well below alert threshold levels.
.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be moderate for a
majority of the next three days (24 - 26 Oct). Values may decrease
further near the end of day one (24 Oct) due to a redistribution of
particles by the first of three anticipated CMEs from 20 and 21 Oct. The
greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain below alert
threshold levels for the next three days (24 - 26 Oct).
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind speeds were in the 390 to 295 km/s range over the
period with a gradual decrease beginning around 23/0400 UTC as weak
coronal hole high-speed stream (CH HSS) effects continued to wane. IMF
Bt remained steady near 5 nT over the period. IMF Bz remained mostly
positive with only very brief intermittent negative decreases to as low
as -5 nT. IMF Phi remained in a primarily negative (toward) orientation
for the majority of the period, with a brief transition to positive
(away) for about an hour at 23/1900 UTC. Ace EPAM indicated a slight
enhancement across a few of the lower energy channels at the time of the
brief sector change.
.Forecast...
Solar wind speed is expected to remain at nominal conditions through the
first half of day one (24 Oct). A combined arrival of the northern flank
of two weak CMEs from 20 Oct along with the southern flank of a third
CME event from 22 Oct is expected during the second half of day one,
into the early hours of day two (25 Oct). Wind speeds are not expected
to increase substantially from these relatively slow glancing blow
transients.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at predominantly quiet levels
for the first half of day one (24 Oct), before the anticipated onset of
effects from three glancing blow CMEs observed leaving the Sun between 
20 and 22 Oct. Initial geomagnetic impacts of the transients are
expected to be in the form of unsettled conditions late on day one with
an increase to conditions as high as minor storm (NOAA Scale G1-Minor)
in the early hours on day two (25 Oct). A recovery to unsettled levels,
with isolated active conditions, can be expected for day three (26 Oct)
as conditions wane prior to the arrival of the fourth CME of the past
few days, which is expected to also be weak and arrive outside of the
forecast period.
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